Information Systems into Wisdom Systems

What will information systems offer the world in 25 years? The easy answer is "Watch Star Trek." The hard answer is "Let's think about how systems grow."

BIO-BASED PREDICTIONS Those who write about development of biological systems try to account for the causes of new functions. For example, mollusks that normally appear one color when grown in fresh water take on another color and shape when adapting to salt water. When looking from the effect backwards to the cause, biologists can do a good job of explaining why the changes came about. However, when looking from the cause, trying to predict the effects, they often give up. This is because complex systems have "emergent properties," i.e., a "phase change" arises when combinations of features unpredictably assert dominance over the current features. Nothing new. Welcome to "chaos theory."

"All Life Is A Stage..." But for Homo sapiens, in both the personal and social realm of human endeavor, we have a surprise. We have some "emergent properties" that are predictable in their developmental trajectory. Maturational stages predictable follow the preceding stage. That is, we can reasonably predict the infant to become the exploring but probably thoughtless youngster. We can fully expect the risk-taking adolescent to become the young, probably mating adult. Likewise the middle-aged, conservative parent will become the risk-averse, and perhaps wise, old grandparent.

Other determinants of the stage-driven prediction have less, but countable influence. Socioeconomic status of the parents strongly influence the educational potential of the youth, but do not determine it. Social surroundings influence the criminal potential of the young adult, but do not determine it.

Whence Comes "Maturity?" What does this all have to do with the future of information systems? We suggest that any "system" worth its silicon follows some sequence of developmental stages. While the rate and details of growth may be indeterminate, the sequence must certainly have a predictable pattern. (This assumes the absence of stress-induced system-suicide and absence of other nuclear-related pathologies such as MAD – mutual assured destruction.)

National cultures exhibit signs of varying stages of maturity. We see this in their tolerance of innovation and creative risk versus slavish adherence to the tried and true. For example, music of the '60s and '70s incessantly blares from the "oldies" radio format stations. As though locked in endless memory rehearsals, our own baby boom marketing group faces the debilitation of continuously reliving the past, rather than creating the present. No wonder aggressive corporations lay off older workers. Even worse, it may be of great concern to some parents in the U.S. that their children actually like and listen to music that was recorded and popular 30 years previous.

Old Can Be Beautiful These fears aside, we can imagine an alternative scenario in which a national culture benefits from its maturing work force. The advice and council of the experienced members can save the younger workers the waste of trial and error learning. Corporate cultures can steer through the economic racecourse with seasoned drivers. Their maturity reflects the lessons of having survived many prior race events and the lessons of their cunning techniques.