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Cyberpubies Given this human orientation to prediction,
we ask what "maturational stage" characterizes the current status
of information systems on the world-wide level. We suggest that it may
be in the 14- to 18-year old stage. We predict that the future looks good,
as it would for any adolescent with a reasonable upbringing and a clean
record. However, for the world, it wasn't always that way.
Just as the pubescent male may exercise his newfound muscular strength
by dominating his weaker colleagues, we suggest that the technological
advances of the "industrial age" became the proximate cause
of WWI and WWII. While these wars could have been avoided if the social
skills of nations had been stronger, a period of global conflicts has
reasonable predictability by analogy to human growth stages. In teens
we find a maturational lag in which physical prowess usually precedes
or outstrips ethical development. Every teenage society has some whose
impulses make them bullies. Bullies can precipitate gangs. Gangs adopt
external aggression in the absence of internal, ethical controls.
Cyberpreppies The "information society" or
the "global village" of television and computer connectivity
represents coming of age, but with limits. Just as the adolescent gains
intellectual competence and logical thought at about 16-18 years, but
yet lacks wisdom, our industrial cultures have "wired up" enough
to become at least "smart," if not yet wise. Just as some corporations
like to hire young blood for their aggressiveness and willingness to take
direction without much investigation of the ethical issues, likewise,
we suggest that our current post-industrial cultures have used information
dissemination in a devil-may-care manner.
Cyberwizzies However, even this youthful mode of conduct
ultimately grows into ethical outcomes, based on growth of "wisdom."
The young adult seeks consistency and tries to eliminate logical contradictions.
This can shape moral expectations. The same occurs in our information
systems. For example, everyone watches CNN to learn what really is going
on. It's a global nervous system. Thus, Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait
could no longer remain a private affair where might makes right. It became
a test case where world nations for the first time ever agreed almost
unanimously on a definition of conduct unbecoming a modern nation state.
This consensus become an "emergent property" of the information
age and it arose solely from the new interconnectedness of global television.
The global network gave rise to a more mature functioning of the constituent
governments. Social approbation replaced the law of the bully. Global
ethics emerged from the developing "nervous system" of the world.
The internet may recapitulate this process in its own manner.
Thus, human developmental stages can guide our understanding of the unfoldment
of information history. We suggest that predictions for the next 25 years
can anticipate the same trajectory of growth and maturation. In the next
25-year period, we suggest our world culture will grow from being 18 years
old to young adulthood. Some young adults do pretty well. And some fail,
at first. But after time, the vast majority of young adults predictably
get it together. Let's take a look at one picture of our global information
future.
A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO PREDICTION In writing for developers
and fellow analysts, we recognize the need for a systematic review of
possibilities. Imagine how you would program a two dimensional array of
an exhaustive list of values. You'd identify the number of columns and
rows required to classify the data items. Then, for each column, the program
would fill in the rows. We have opportunities for a similar matrix that
covers the range of life experience. This matrix is drawn from an age-old
discipline for characterizing human fortune and challenge. One of us (Bob)
has studied the system of Vedic astrology as a hobby for several years.
Since over 50% of the mature U.S. population reads astrology columns in
newspapers, we can't go too astray in adopting this scaffold for building
an entertaining picture of the future.
All Possibilities The "matrix" used in Vedic
astrology is simple. It says that life has three stages of evolution:
outer values, inner values, and the integration of the two. These will
be our "columns" in the array. Vedic astrology identifies four
realms of discourse:
- personal tendencies ("Dharma for our '60s readers)
- resources (people and stuff that gives us a head start in life)
- hopes/desires (the directional predispositions we have)
- awareness (who we are and our definition of fulfillment)
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